There seems to be some debate on the worthiness of John Carlson as a tight end for the Seahawks. NFL.COM has a video right here, in which Carlson explains his poor performance at the combine and what teams can expect from him at the next level.
Obviously a lot of us disagree, but let me explain my theory on why Carlson would fit better than say a Dustin Keller. In the WCO, the ideal tight end falls somewhere in between Carlson and Keller. A Hybrid of the two if you will. Let me explain. To continue....
Obviously in running plays the TE is on the line and expected to block either an end or linebacker. Keller will struggle with this because he is only 240 lbs. However, one of the most popular formations in Holmgren's WCO is Zebra. This is 3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE. In this formation, the TE is also lined up next to a tackle. Often the tight end is used to "stretch the seam" as it is called, which is essentially running up the middle of the field. In a Tampa two scheme this takes the MLB with him clearing up the middle for crossing receivers. In other defenses, often the safeties are responsible. By occupying them in the middle of the field it opens up the outside routes. If the safeties help outside often the TE can be hit for a big play. Think of the play right after the safety in the Dallas playoff game, where Hass hits Stevens for an 50 some yrd TD to put the Hawks ahead.
Keller will be far better at this aspect because he is faster and more atheletic. A glorified WR if you will. However, in order to be able to do this successfully, he has to get through the scrum at the line of scrimmage. This is why a hybrid of the two would be perfect. However, because of Carlson's size, while a few seconds slower, he often would get to the safeties equally as quick. Thus partially negating the speed difference. He is also clearly better as a blocker than Keller.
This also probably means, in my opinion, that the best TE for the Hawks, is USC's Fred Davis. However, if the team can't trade back, it is going to be a bit of reach to take him at 25. It doesn't appear he will make it to 55. So it is almost a pick your poison type of situation with the TE's.
Good stuff, Mike. I agree that we have to be really sold on one of the TEs to take one in Rnd 1 or we could lose out on any of the top 4 or 5 if we wait until Rnd 2. Will we reach? Based on my confidence in Ruskell, if we take a TE in round 1, he won't be considered a reach for long...
ReplyDeleteHappy Easter!
I'm a bigger fan of the Carlson type myself. I'd rather have a running team that can pass vs. a passing team that can't run. Bennett is an attractive option as well, maybe a little raw though.
ReplyDeleteI say take Balmer or Albert in the first if available, if not trade down. 2nd round should be TE.
-SDHawksfan
From what I see I like John Carlson. He seems like a Ruskell type player. I'd like to see us take O-Line (Albert/Willimas) or D-line (Balmer/Cambell) in the 1st and Carlson in the 2nd.
ReplyDeleteWar_Hawk
I liked Carlson in that interview more than I expected. We are in such a tough position at the end of the first round. To high to pick a tight end perhaps, but that is clearly what we need the most. Without an upgrade at that position we are going to be stunted offensively. Its to bad that we are in a spot with such a glaring need.
ReplyDeleteI think with Tapp not at the top of his game or maybe finished I think we need a big defensive lineman.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry I ment Tubbs not Tapp.
ReplyDeleteWhat about Craig Stevens out of Cal? I haven't seen any film on him, but it seems he has more size than Keller but has better hands than Carlson. Would he qualify as a TR type of guy?
ReplyDeleteThe good thing about Stevens (and probably Carlson too) is that the Hawks could trade out of the first round, pick up a better spot in the 2nd and still potentially get Stevens in the 3rd or 4th.
Carlson already has pretty good hands. Have you seen some of the diving grabs he has had (especially for touchdowns) or the second effort first down against GT last year? In my opinion he'd be a steal by the second round.
ReplyDeleteI like Stevens from Cal..He had the most bench reps at the combine,is a good blocker,with decent speed,his only weeakness is questionable hands..Stevens is projected a 5th round--free agent pick up.
ReplyDeleteFor its worth, here is Stevens' profile on scout.com
ReplyDeletehttp://sea.Scout.com/a.z?s=114&p=8&c=1&nid=3225897&yr=2008
Reading through that, it lists his hands as a strength and while he's not the "best" blocker, he is regarded as smart and efficient which sounds like the hallmark of a TR sort of guy. And scout.com, at least has him going in rounds 3 or 4. Whatever that means...
Apparently, I'm hyperlink challenged this morning. Here's what I was trying to link to:
ReplyDeleteHt: 6-4 Wt: 257 40: 4.78
Position: TE
College: California
2008 Scout.com NFL Draft Rankings (full list):
Pos: TE Pos Rank: #5 Pos Rating:
Scout.com Player Evaluation:
STRENGTHS
Competitiveness
Hands and Concentration
Route-Running Skills
AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT
Elusiveness with Catch
Strength
An impressive football player. Has a good frame to add bulk and strength, runs well and is very solid athlete. I felt he had wide receiver type hands and the quickness and speed to threaten up the seam. As a blocker, wasn't either punishing or a big finisher, but was smart and efficient. Positions after contact (brings his feet around) and stays with blocks. Very good feet and balance. Solid H back prospect with 3-4 round league draft potential.
The H-Back comment is what scares me. That is what they say Keller will be. It means he will struggle unless teams use him in creative ways to get him a free release.
ReplyDelete"H back prospect" seems like something of a throwaway label that they're using to fill out his profile; at least to me.
ReplyDeleteIf he has good hands and good quicks and can run the seam shouldn't he fit within the WCO?
I agree with anon that DT tackle is what we need for the future. The defense is totally different with Tubbs in there and Tubbs is a gigantic question mark for the future. I also think a good TE should be available from round 3 onward. If a good one is available, I would like us to go DT early.
ReplyDeleteMy feeling on Keller is, at that size, is any other team even going to consider drafting him until pretty late? This league puts a priority on size and a 240lb TE is probably scary for everyone except Ruskell. I am a little concerned that Ruskell may reach for Keller when no one else really wants him in the first day of the draft at all. $.02
-PaulySINM
In my opinion Carlson is more the type of player TR wants on the team. he shows signs of being a humble individual that knows what he is capable of. I like it when he says that he "there are definitely things I can't control but I control the effort I put into it" I like a guy that knows he can't control everything and he recongnizes it and knows what he can control and thats what he focuses on. In film I have seen of him, he seems like he can hold his own as far as blocking is concerned. He definitely can get virtical in the seams and has great hands.
ReplyDeletewe could very well see a ND pair with either our first two picks or 2nd and 3rd round picks.
ReplyDeleteI have loved Trevor Laws since the senior bowl and he seems like a TR guy. I would be very pleased to see both Carlson and Laws tearing up the 9ner's, Card's, and Ram's this next year!
I think the Hawks are aiming for value and the best value at TE at the end of a round is probably going to be round 3 and I think the Hawks are likely comfortable waiting until round 4 an picking up Stevens. I still think Cottam and Stevens are the two best fits for the Hawks (maybe Bennett)
ReplyDeleteMike, do you not think that the best TE on our roster is actually Leonard Weaver? Holmgren was quoted as saying that they ultimately saw him as a HB, and wanted him to get more carries. That doesn't look like happening anymore given the RBs we have added. He showed on a couple of plays towards the end of last season that he is a danger with the ball in his hands (that draw for a TD, a screen which went for big yardage), and he's probably going to be going to waste. With our WR depth not what it was last year, what do you think of playing weaver like an H-Back; starting in the I, moving him into the slot, trying to get the ball to him on WR screens, etc? It might hrlp stretch the field if we don't have a decent TE next season.
ReplyDeletewell, John Carlson had a "parasite". I can see how that might shave a couple tenths off his forty time. I like him and agree that he's a "Ruskell" guy. Sure would be nice if we could trade down a few spots.
ReplyDeleteMartellus Bennet. Hands. Blocks. Has size. Isnt slow. Do-it-all. Ruskell can draft him in the second--he should be there at 55.
ReplyDelete-SlaveToTheBusinessman
Carlson improved his numbers a lot last Wednesday at the Irish Pro Day,
ReplyDeleteimproving his 40 time to 4.67 from 4.89. Maybe there is truth to the bug story. He claims to have lost 17 pounds because of it!
Instead of watching Carlson explain why he didn't perform whether this year or at the combine - use this link and watch Keller in action
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28fZ0_-q1bA
yeah this guy who ever wrote that article doesnt know what he is talking about he thinks fred davis is a good fit for our hawks. Fred davis is a horrible blocker and he forty time is going to be slower then carlsons when the usc's pro day comes around. He has terrible character issues and he is a me guy not a team guy and tr doesnt want that on his team. carlson at 25... thats all i have to say... if we dont take him then he will be gone by 55
ReplyDeleteWhat a dumb argument. A defensive lineman and a linebacker couldn't negate the speed of Keller. Keller is stronger and quicker than Carlson. John outweighs him by what? A whopping 10 lbs.? Give me a break. Dustin Keller is the best athlete of the draft and clearly much better than your boyfriend John Carlson.
ReplyDelete