In much of the draft speculation going on, myself, and many of you, feel that the best move for the Hawks is to move back and get more picks. It seems that all the players that would really be good fits are more deserving of being taken in the early second than at the #25. Of course, if Jonathan Stewart slides this could be moot, however, according to Lions Insider and Tom Kowalski, Detroit would like to get back into the late first to draft Jarrod Mayo.
If you are so inclined.....
If you are looking at this in accordance to the draft pick value chart. Seattle's pick at #25 is worth 720 points. Detroit's 2nd, #45 is worth 450, Detroit would need to add in a 3rd, and probably one of their two 5ths to come up to #25. Here is a link to the draft pick value chart, if some you have never seen it.
I think this speculation is kind of fun. It gives you a good foundation for why it is so hard to make some of these deals. Teams have to give up an awful lot. FYI, if you are playing around with numbers, The Hawks currently have #25, #55, & #86. Everything after that won't be determined until compensatory picks are announced.
We'd be dropping way too far back into the second for that to work.
ReplyDeleteWe'd be really risking getting a player we really want just for the sake of an extra third and a fifth. Am I the only one who prefers quality over quantity?
I think we need to aim at getting a top 5 2nd round player, that is where we should be to get Laws, as long as the Giants don't take him.
ReplyDeleteSo I would agree that Detroit is a little too low as they are the 15th team, making their second pick the 47th (?).
I think it would bode well for us to trade for a top 5 second and just get an extra 3rd, maybe a 7th too. That would be perfect I would think.
Oops, 45th pick is Detroit's. All I had to do was read!
ReplyDeleteGood point Michael but I am not sure if we would do that. We need a good first round pick to help out the OL. If we can pick up an earlier 2nd rounder and still get a good OLM then you might be right.
ReplyDeleteSince this class is not spectacular, why don't we trade down by getting a second this year and a second next year. Or trade with the Raiders and collect a 1st for next years draft and since Al Davis is whack, we could probably get a third this year as well. we know they are going to be awful.
ReplyDeleteHere's a novel idea...
ReplyDeleteLet's just keep our first rounder and spend it on the BPA.
I wasn't endorssing this one way or the other. I was just using it as a tool to show that trading down isn't just as easy as saying, lets trade down.
ReplyDeleteFirst there has to be a team, second it has to work for both teams, and third you have to calculate the values.
I just thought it would be fun to post so people could play around with the numbers a bit if they want.
Ruskell has his own plan, and Damn him! he won't tell me what it is.
Haha Micheal.
ReplyDeleteThat's right, I wasn't trying to disagree, just stating that this doesn't seem to be ours.
What is your best guess of where Laws will fall, likely. The Giants are in need of a DT, but do they like smaller DT's? I am almost sure a guy of his class will not fall too low in the 2nd round tho.
Thoughts?
I agree, MS, that Stewart's availability means we use it with our 25th. But ...
ReplyDelete#45 from Detroit is waayyyyy too far back.
How about these:
Swap firsts with the Packers (their #30) and they throw in their third (#91) The Packers still have two second rounders and they could go QB Brohm or S Kenny Phillips from our spot.
Swap our first for Atlanta's two seconds, #37 and #68, so they can get QB Brohm.
I don't like dropping to #37, but this way we can get three solid seconds including our #55. And #33,34, and 35 could all well be offensive linemen.
Yes, speculation on the draft is better than watching exhibition games (and paying full price) - in terms of getting you into the upcoming season.
And thanks for linking a "points" chart for the uninitiated. There is no basis in talking trades until you can talk points.
And to think, Jimmy Jones came up with it (at least the most commonly used chart).
I think 300+ pounder Pat Sims is a canidate for a round 2 DT. He's been seen on more than one mock draft in our range. Ruskell likes Auburn alums, too. Video link below.
ReplyDeletehttp://auburn.rivals.com/cviewplayer.asp?Player=46<
What would it take for the Hawks to actually swap with the Lions? 08 2nd/3rd and 09 3rd?? Is that realistic?
ReplyDeleteKM
I know Ruskell is playing to win this year but I have thought about him wanting an extra pick or two for next season when Mora takes over.
ReplyDeleteCoaches always like it better having their guys. There are always many exceptions (like Walter Jones was for Holmgren - he loved him and just b/c he wasn't "his guy" there's no way he would let him get away... you also know for a fact that Tru and Tatupu will be Mora guys for a long time).
I'd be fine with trading our 1 for an early 2nd this year and a 2nd next year. Or, better yet...
There are also some teams who may want to move up to take Brohm (and some must feel he can be a franchise QB). In the past, teams have traded their 2nd in the current year and a 1st the following year (like Balt did for Boller and Cle did for Quinn). I'd be more than happy with this scenario. There are some teams out there who need a franchise QB like KC, Bal, Mia, Chi, Atl, etc. I'm not sold on guys like Croyle, any Bear, Boller, etc.
I just hope the BPA wherever we pick is a DL. If that means Laws in the early 2nd or Sims in the mid-late 2nd, so be it. I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really don't want to go into the season with our current "depth" on the defensive line. Aside from an average Terrill (not good, but certainly not bad), all seem to be below average NFL players (I hope Atkins turns out or else our DE depth is terrible and Tapp truly isn't a great every down player).
bk
One team that has many needs is Miami. I don't know what there cap space looks like, but they have the 33rd and 57th picks. Only having 1 win last year may make them a good candidate to bargin with. We could give up our our 25th and 86th (pretty comprable). We would then be able to have our choice with the 1st 2nd round pick (maybe Laws/Campbell) and have two more 2nd rounders for TE and whatever else sees fit. I think for what we are looking for out of the draft it would be the best value for us... if Miami has sights on and late first rounders.
ReplyDeleteNext time Paul Allen hires a GM he need look no further than this website.
ReplyDeleteMiami would want more picks to fill more holes, not fewer picks. Parcells has a record of adding picks to rebuild teams. I believe they would only deal with us if they were adding picks one way or another...
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that Atlanta is the most likely to move up, only because they have 3 2nd round picks.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the problem you find with any of the teams at the top of the 2nd, is that have too many holes to fill and can't afford to give up picks. That is why you would take a 2009' pick, but I am not sure the Hawks want to go that route.
I would think they would want to take a 2nd and a later pick, then turn around and use that later pick plus our original 2nd to move up from #55.
What Ruskell will do is create a list of players he is targeting for 25. If none are available, he will try to trade down. That is what happened with Spencer. He then may use the additional picks to move up his next pick, like he did to get Lofa.
That way it counters the lower first pick by getting a higher second. If that makes any sense to you, congratulations, you can be hired to translate my ramblings.
BK... Tapp isn't great everydown player yet, but he has only been starting for 1 year. You have to admit he has the opportunity to be better this year. It is not like he is a vet who we know what we are getting. Hell, he wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the year.
ReplyDeleteHe could be the newest Hawk to step up above and beyond what we expect. He certainly showed flashes of being a Very good player.
Just assuming TR is interested in trading with Detroit??? At 25 we take say B.Albert. Then 2nd round we maybe take a TE with our pick(Keller). If we trade with Detroit and draft F.Davis/Keller at 45, and then draft BPA late 2nd, plus pick up 3rd round where we could draft a Guard, and a 3rd pick in 09wouldn't we be better off? I like Albert - it just seems to me we would be better off with those extra picks as #25 doesn't give you a sure thing starter???? Maybe it's just me.
ReplyDeleteKM
Sorry for rambling. Players can change in my post, just see a lot of backup holes to fill and think that we can get quantity while still getting quality.
ReplyDeleteLets just say Tapp is the reincarnation of Reggie White, the fact of the matter is that there is questionable depth. If he gets hurt, it doesn't matter if he was good or great in year three.
ReplyDeleteI like Stewart just as much as the next guy. But, do we really need him this year? How would that work in our backfield? Unless we traded Morris, but I'm not prepared for step quite that yet. I just would hate to see Julius get moved aside at this point. I feel very confident that our RB package will work wonders this year; so, why not just wait until next year to invest in a rookie RB?
ReplyDeleteGO SEAHAWKS! .... #2 Seed, at least, NFC this year.
Michael
ReplyDeleteI think Tapp has a great motor and def. has potential to improve. but he has a definate ceiling w/ his size. The coaches like Atkins alot and I would love a DE like Merling or BPA in the 1st to shore up the edge on run defense that Tapp sometimes gives up. Although he should be a good pass rusher w that motor. also I would prefer a bigger DT than laws unless he is specifically a planned replacement for Rocky Bernard after this season. If they have faith in Bernard contributing for a few years i would rather see us draft a larger run stuffing tackle for earlier downs.
RM8
Also Tricityhawk.
ReplyDeleteWe take stewart this yr. if he falls in my opinion because his caliber RB dont often fall to #25 pick. The depth at RB is solid but not many come along as talented as Stewart and the point of BPA is not to help this yr. necessarily. Stewart could still develop behind our current backs. Honestly tho i think Stewart and mendenhall will be gone by the time we pick.
RM8