Obviously we are inching ever so closely to the draft. I only wish it was closer. However, I thought, because of the lack of anything relevant happening this week, it would be a good time to start working on this. I read about 40 or so scouting reports yesterday, and have begun formulating my draft preview. To see how it is going to work.....
I am basing my draft preview off the limited amounts of info I have read about how Tim Ruskell handles the drat. What we know is that he heavily emphasizes character. He also isn't as quick to dismiss a player due to limitations such as size and speed. Right up there next to character is fit. He teaches scouts to find players that fit the teams system. Because of this, often the draft board may be smaller than other teams. From there he breaks the players into small lists of who he thinks will be available at each pick. This is flexible in case people slide.
This is what I have tried to do. I am going to put together blocks of players from different positions that could be available at each pick, and who the Hawks could take.
My opinion effects this greatly, so you will notice some of my beliefs pervading these analyzes. In this first round projection, you will not see a tackle or a wide receiver, that is because as many of you have seen me write, I don't believe that it makes sense for the Hawks to take those positions, because they would be lost on the depth chart for too long or already have a full complement of players.
So here is the chart, following it will be a little more info on each player.
SEAHAWKS FIRST ROUND DRAFT TARGETS
Jonathan Stewart-- What else needs to be said? He is local, and he is damn good. He wants to be here and he is the thick stout type of runner who would complement Jones right away. He did just have toe surgery and some are predicting he will slip to the second, however if the Hawks want him, they better grab him here. He may go before this anyway.
Antione Cason-- This pick is totally contingent on the Marcus Trufant situation. Would be bother me and many of you to pick ANOTHER corner with our first pick? Of Course! But what else are we going do. If Marcus just has to have 10 mil a year the team may just have to replace him. With a year under his belt, this team could go into 09' with Cason in place of Marcus. He is a big physical playmaker, who also has great leadership and character.
Brandon Albert-- This is an interesting pick, because I am sure the team wants to see how guys like Sims and Wrotto develop. However, because Wahle is aging and won't play more than a few seasons here, and that Albert could possibly become a tackle, make it work in the long run. Ruskell likes Virgina players. Al Groh gets them ready to be pro's like no other college coach. Albert is no different, he will be a productive player for a long time.
Fred Davis-- Look, it appears that Davis might slip. It is even questionable if any tight end is worth a first round pick. This pick, along with Laws, could still happen if the team is able or wants to move back. However, if they can't move back, it is possible they will take him anyway. I think that everyone would agree that the Hawks need a tight end who can contribute right away. That guy is Davis, and he played in a pro system at SC, he should be able to catch on quickly and make an impact.
Trevor Laws--Of all the D Tackles outside of Dorsey and Ellis, this is the guy the Hawks will want. He may be available later, but this is the type of person that Ruskell will draft and not take a chance on missing. He is a high motor, high character, smart, and quick football player. He is probably best compared to Rocky Bernard, who not coincidentally becomes a free agent next year. The Hawks may trade back from 25 or up from 55 and still get try to get this guy, but if that seems unlikely, they may just take him.
Kenny Phillips-- At first I didn't necessarily think to put Phillips on the board, but it actually makes a lot sense. Brian Russell and Deon Grant were great last year, but both are veterans, as are Mike Green and Babs. This team will defintely take a safety. CJ Wallace is a nice story, but I doubt they project him to be a difference maker or even a starter. I think one year of Ken Hamlin and Michael Boulware was all Ruskell needed to make sure the team has good young safeties. Heck, some of you even attribute the corners improvement to the safeties, so this secures the secondary for a long time. Ruskell has taken Atkins and Jennings in successive years, so he has plenty of inside info on Phillips. I couldn't find anyone speaking poorly about his character, so I have to believe that he doesn't fit stereotypical ideal of Hurricane players of old.
ROUND 2 NEXT WEEK.....STAY TUNED
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I would take Kentwan the "Em" Balmer before Trevor Laws if he is still on the board.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the run down. This is great, and gives me something to chew on when the draft does come. I'm ready for it now.
ReplyDeleteGreat blog!-It has become a daily go to for me.
-Christopher, Washington, DC
Mike, Nice preview. I know Alberts isnt an exciting pick but he would be mine.
ReplyDeleteI think our draft countdown is wrong. I believe the Draft Starts at 3pm this year noon your time.
what if by some chance a top 3-4 tackle is still on the board? not saying we need one.
ReplyDeleteMike, I have seen a lot of mock drafts that have us taking DT Kentwan Balmer. Has the Seahawks organization made any comments about him that would lead us to believe he would be taken (or not)if available? I think he would be a great pickup.
ReplyDeleteI would also stick a DE on that list in Merling. A lot of boards have him going after us even though he is rated so high. That way we can get a starting DE in part of our rotation, having him swap in and out with Tapp would be great.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad you put Phillips on there too, I think that may be a sleeper pick for us. No one is really saying anything about safety for us, however I think it'd be a really smart idea to get such a talented safety and train him under our vets.
What about Kentwan Balmer?
As for TE's....I'm not sure what you are doing for the 2nd round....but Carlson has long regarded as being the top TE and Keller has been working his way up the boards since the Combine. I personally think it would be smart to add on Carlson and Keller. I'm sure all 3 TE will be availible in the 2nd round, however none of these 3 look to fall to our 2nd pick.
Carlson is a high character guy, a work horse, high-effort guy and was a leader for ND...and comes from a pro-style offense. He can catch and block with the best of them.
Keller is just a physical freak and is the most explosive TE out of the top 3. He would add the biggest spark to the offense in my opinion. Plus didn't the Hawk talk 1 on 1 with Keller and come away impressed? I thought I read that somewhere.
DSAhawker
The reason Balmer isn't on this list is because he was basically throwing away his talent the first three years he was at school and the only decent year he had was last year, when his career was on the line. You tell me, is that a Ruskell Guy??
ReplyDeleteAs for Carlson...He slipped towards the 3rd round after running 4.9!!!! at the combine. He ran better at his pro day yesterday, so he and Keller will probably make the next round projection.
His 40 time would really dropped him from a potential 1st to a 3rd round choice??? I don't know if I would go that far. He is superior to every TE(except speed apparently) except Davis and Keller. But for Bennett, Cottam, Finley, Rucker...etc....they are all inferior to Carlson as an all around TE. He should go before them I would imagine. Does running a 4.9 instead of a 4.75 really make that much of a difference?
ReplyDeleteAs for Balmer...I see what yer saying. I want Laws over balmer anyways. I really like Laws.
If the Hawks take a TE or a RB in the first round I will vomit. The RB situation is fine for this year, it can be addressed in the future if determined that the backs on the current roster can't do the job. As for TE, there are so many places in the draft that a soild TE can be picked up. I don't think Seattle needs a top flight TE. I love the CB pick, I don't want to see Tru cripple this team financially, even if he is a local kid. I would think that the Hawks either go DT, OG, CB or possibly WR in the 1st round. With our current WR corps we have an aging Engram an inconsistant Burleson and a hurt Branch. I would not be opposed to seeing the Hawks take a guy like Devin Thomas or James Hardy with the 1st pick. They both have size and speed, the size is key because they will be able to withstand the hits that most WRs take running the shorter routes in a WCO. Also, our mainstay on offense is our passing game, I hope that changes this year but we don't know yet. The last thing I want to see is our best player, Hasselbeck not have anybody to throw to because of injuries.
ReplyDeleteYour logic is sound, and I agree with most of your analysis. I sense K.Balmer may not make it to our pick, but if he does, we consider him. I'm with 'ya 100% that Rusk takes Phillips if he's there - the top rated S, for reasons you stated and BPA.
ReplyDeleteNo way Laws goes in 1st, and I think Albert or OTs if top 3 RBs all of board.
I'd add Sweed and Charles to top 2 round mix.
I think Ruskell has shown that he avoids 'troubled' players more than he goes after 'character guys', maybe I'm off-base on that, but I see too much being made of what it takes to become a Seahawk. Talent is talent. We won't see another J.Stevens selected with known problems in this regime, but that doesn't mean we only take community leaders.
ReplyDeleteI like this draft. I think that we may get another CB/DB this year since there is a chance that Trufant may not be back next year. We really need to focus on signing our LB's more than him.
ReplyDelete"The reason Balmer isn't on this list is because he was basically throwing away his talent the first three years he was at school and the only decent year he had was last year, when his career was on the line. You tell me, is that a Ruskell Guy??"
ReplyDeleteIsn't that what the scouts said of Baraka Atkins last year? They said he had poor work ethic. I was suprised Timmy picked him.
I think it was the opposite, Atkins had a bad senior season after playing well at two different positions while a sophomore and junior.
ReplyDeleteBut also, that was a 4ht rounder. Remember part of the reason Ruskell will reach in the first and ABSOLUTELY take a high character guy at this point, is because the stakes are higher.
More money for the young man, more pressure for the player, and on Ruskell too. 1st rounder can't be a bust or it sets the franchise back. Better to take a Spencer and at least get a starter, than somebody who may peter out.
Evan,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you. If the Hawks take a RB or TE in round 1...not good. There is not a TE worth a 1st round pick. With all the money we have in RB's right now...we need to address other areas. DL and OL are always good picks....football is won in the trenches!
Whether or not you like the idea of a RB or TE in the first, those are the two positions on this team that would be likely to garner a signficant amount of playing time NEXT year. So while it would be a reach for TE and we already have some RB's, our chances of being a better team next year increase if we get the guys of the top of the hawks board at those positions.
ReplyDeleteGreat insight Mike.
ReplyDeleteI had many of those guys in mind,
Phillips is a nice idea, but could be a slight waste.
Stewart would be great, but big question: will he go in the 1rst? My opinion is that either a team is in love with him and doesn't care about the surgery and will take him early (Zona comes to mind). Otherwise, why not get him in the high second.
It would be AWESOME if Seattle got 3 2nds for many reason. First, this is who we could take:
1. We could land Trevor Laws--in my mind he will become the best DT of the draft (look at his background, wrestler, made an AWFUL D in N.Dame look O.K. unlike Dorsey who was plugged in to a good system). But don't want to reach for this guy because we have Tubbs.
2. We could still possibly land Stewart. Ruskell's kind of guy, but not a HUGE need, bigger at TE.
3. Davis will likely be here, I don't see him in the first, and Carlson may be worth it here in the late 2nd. Don't forget Keller and Martelius Bennett. All great.
Wild card--Players always drop, and I am sure Ruskell already has someone he likes here anyways, so there would be a great pick-up here. A CB?
Why trade down?
Well, paying a 1rst rounder is very expensive, and the pressure on him is like a truck landing on your house. The word "bust" is whispered every day of your life until you make a Pro Bowl.
We have various needs, but no GLARING need, except for TE. And a good-great TE can be had in the second.
Just some thoughs...
Why did you choose Fred Davis over Dustin Keller? Maybe it's just my bias and have really been on the Keller band wagon, but am really missing something here. I get that Keller is not the best blocker, but has the build to put on some bulk and can improve with coaching. Just seems to me that with the explosiveness and down field abilities it would really benefit our O. TR is big on guys who fit the system and I feel that Keller fits our system much better. What are your thoughts on this?
ReplyDeleteCTS- I put Davis here because Davis has the much better overall resume.
ReplyDeleteIn reality Keller wasn't on anybody's radar until the combine right. People were talking Davis, Carlson, and even Cottam, but not Keller.
Everything I have read suggests that Ruskell relies much more heavily on the full season of work put in by the area scouts, as opposed to someone who shined on one day.
Now, maybe the Hawks liked Keller before the combine, but I personally don't think he is a first rounder. Usually Draftniks are the ones who over rate players on combine workouts. I think the Hawks will look at Keller in the second, barring that they haven't taken a TE. You will find out more when I right up the 2nd round next week.
I like Laws in the first round Keller or Carlson in the second. TR always takes best available player so it could be Stewart or Albert.
ReplyDeleteyour right, makes sense. thanks
ReplyDeleteOne thing I'd like to say is that I hope the Hawks draft for BPA and not need. When teams draft for need they reach and make mistakes. I don't think Ruskell will do that. Now whether the player selected turns out to be a solid player only time will tell. But BPA regardless of postion is the way to go.
ReplyDeleteThe deal with the TE is that there is going to be a good TE in the second round to take....that is getting good value in the draft! When you reach for need you end up getting a bad draft. (EX Jerramy Stevens, Anton Palepoi that was a bad year because we reached in both rounds). I see a good opportunity to add a contributing player in the 1st at best player available. Now, I think Stewart would be great value at #25, but then all the money we paid to the RB's in free agency has been wasted. There are only so many carries a game, unless we are going to switch to the old Nebraska wishbone.
ReplyDeleteThe idea of reaching is tough to quantify. Was it a reach when we jumped up and took Lofa? most thought so. But we got a player that Ruskell wanted and believed in.
ReplyDeleteSo if he reaches, it is usually because he knows that player has the traits that will make him successful. Therefore they will eventually out perform their draft status anyway.
Laws could be one of those players. As for the tight end, I am sure that while we see a ton of depth at that position, Ruskell and CO probably have eliminated half of those players already because they don't fit the system or other issues. So he may feel more compelled to take the top guy on his list because while a bunch of guys might be available later, he may not like them.
Remember last year. He passed on TE after TE that we all thought he should be taking. He didn't want any of them. So this year we have an opportunity to get the top TE on Tim's draft board. They may have predicted this last year when passing on all those guys.
I still think we take Stewart or Davis in the first. Ultimately I think we have to choose one of those two guys; unless the TRU situation implodes. Then we go CB...if a good one is left.
ReplyDeleteGreat site! I go multiple times a day (and I visit this site, too)!
ReplyDeleteI've heard that K. Phillips has a bad work ethic. Also, isn't it true that TR never drafts underclassmen (with the exception of Tatupu)?
This draft looks good, except we need a RB in round 2 (or 3).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tiricosuave.com/2008/03/20/nfl-mock-draft-v-20/
The hawks will take Dustin Keller my friend. He is the best TE in the draft by far and fits in the west coast offense. He can also contibute right now.
ReplyDeleteI am surprised you picked Davis.
Keller is a way better athlete than davis and has better hands.
Smart money is on KELLER.
- "Nick~Hawk"
What happened to Merling? You predicted this guy as the first round pick for the Hawks...
ReplyDeleteHe would be great.
-"Nick~Hawk"
I tend to favor the Gilbert Brown or Pat Williams types of DTs for run-stopping beef in the middle. Balmer could turn into a monster (bigger monster) at 6'5". Having seen good things about Laws, I'm sure if we picked him in the 2nd, I'd be happy.
ReplyDeleteThe posters previously were well-stated in that reaching for players is a negative, but I liked Michael's theory and evidence regarding the perception of 'reach picks' regarding Lofa, etc. Thanks for the insight.
Merling had Hernia Surgery recently and is now in danger of falling down a round or two, but I only took him because at the time in that draft he represented BPA.
ReplyDeleteThe Hawks would consider him if he falls, but many previously expected him to go much earlier. Now I am not so sure.
And I never said that the Hawks would take Davis and not Keller, I just don't think the Hawks are looking at Keller in the first. I don't think he will go as high as people are projecting right now.
ReplyDeleteAs I said earlier, He wasn't even top 5 in TE's until after the combine, and often teams are more weary of that than the "draft experts"
Remember Greg Olson from last year? Thats what I think of when I think of us drafting a TE. On a Chicago Bears team, granted with an influx at QB and a middling offense, Olson did very little. How do we expect a TE to come in, learn this complicated WO offense, and make a serious impact? Aint happening! if they go TE, thats a project pick. Save that for next year, when the same talent will be available.
ReplyDeleteFancyPants
FancyPants-
ReplyDeleteTE is arguably our team's most glaring flaw. Why not address it with such a deep year of TEs in the draft? I agree that a full grasp of the WCO will take time, yet a rookie could still make a difference. I think this is a rare year for TEs.
Davis fits better than keller in the WCO. An H-back role is suited for a player who can come from multiple sets (chris cooley or dallas clark mold) and keller fits that role. Those players are great but davis lines up as a conventional wco TE who can seal a line backer and block occasionally. Also a combine hero never overly impresses Tim R. or holmgren, even tho keller is a great athlete.
ReplyDeleteEveryone is forgetting that Ruskell does NOT draft need in first round unless its close enough to the next BPA on his draft board. I wont even speculate on pics because while fun and serves an offseason football fix, so much depends on who is drafted 1-25. I like the info tho...
RM8 (eight)
If I am not mistaken, the Hawks lost their games when the got dominated on the line of scrimmage, see Green Bay game. Also, they didn't run the ball all that well against Washington. If there is an impact OL or DL left they have to take him. I think the DT spot really needs attention, nobody knows if Tubbs is going to every be able play a full season and Rocky is a FA next year and I am sure he will want Tommy Kelly money. I think the Hawks are okay at RB and the TE needs can be met in the 3rd round with a guy like Martin Rucker. If the Hawks find that the RB position isn't what they hoped for, they can always take a guy next year in the draft. It isn't hard for a RB to go straight from college to the pros the very next year. Other positions, you can't say the same.
ReplyDeleteAgreed RM8... it also depends on what tricks TR has up his sleeve for the rest of FA. Wouldn't be suprised if he makes a few moves from left field.
ReplyDeleteI disagree with a TE being a project pick. We are at great need at TE and unless Heller or Putzier step up HUGE. Heller was unreliable last year and Putzier hasn't had much PT last couple years so I think that it's safe to say that outstanding play is not expected from these two, not that they don't have to ability to exceed expectations. I think TR will go into the season expecting significant contribution from all 3 TE's.
Alberts has got to be the guy we pick in the first round. The reason being there is a good chance that guys like Laws, Davis and Stewart will all drop out of the first round, Alberts will not. The second round is where we need to excel, and I would be psyched if we traded for another second round pick (maybe Laws/Balmer and Davis/Keller/Carlson). I think a RB can wait for the third round, guys like Mike Hart or Ray Rice, could potentially slip to the third round. I think our WR situation is fine (we have four young guys salivating to get on the field) but if we were to draft a WR I would like to see it no sooner than the fourth, same with CB. Then in the sixth and seventh, what about a kicker and a QB? Wallace will always be a backup and as for Frye, well there's a reason why he was traded after the first week in Cleveland. People aren't really talking about QB's in the draft, but I'd be happy if Alex Brink was drafted late, pretty sure he'll still be there. And then Serna out of Oregon State in the seventh round. There you have it folks, those are your 2008 Seahawk Draft picks.
ReplyDeleteI believe we have to go with Albert. It just makes sense. Build the offense back up emphasizing the o-line so that we can run the ball more effectively to control the clock. We already have a pretty strong D. Many of these guys will be around in round two.
ReplyDeleteWith Hill's change of representation, I wonder if we would look to Connor or Mayo.
ReplyDeleteAlbert very unlikely to be available. Though he was a guard
ReplyDeletein college, he might just be the
best tackle in the draft.
Stewart probably gone too.
If any of players that might slide
down to us, it might be an OT, like
Cherilus (sp?) or Williams. Baker is a second rounder, but what about Rachal, the consensus 2nd best guard in the draft?
That's why Balmer and Keller are
being penciled in, because they
are the best values at #25.....
I think there's a reason why Laws
got moved out to d-end at ND. Is
he big enough, or perhaps more
importantly, is he strong enough?
So, to help stop the run, Mora's
gonna want D-Line.
To help open up the O, a blue chip
guard or RB, but they could live
with 2nd/3rd round tight end...