Not to take anything away from the upcoming one, which promises much drama and unpredictability, but 2009 will be bountiful and fun. It all comes down to compensation picks. While Tim Ruskell has said he expects to get a compensation pick this year(I disagree), the Hawks most certainly will get some next year. Lets take a look at what they may end up with.
To continue.....
As you can see, the Hawks have lost a lot more free agents then they have signed. More importantly, Mike Wahle doesn't qualify because he didn't complete his contract, he was released. Also Putzier doesn't count because he is under the minimum contract that counts with in the formula.
The other two elements that go into figuring out the picks is up in the air. They are playing time and post season honors. So in reality, we should all be rooting for the former Hawks unless we are playing them. I labeled players expected to start as S and those expected it be reserve or rotational, but still active as R/A. All of the former Hawks are expected to be active for their new teams.
With the salaries of Brown and Niko essentially counting out TJ and Julius, we can expect several picks in the later rounds. My guess right now would be maybe two 6ths and 2 7ths. However, this could go up. Especially if Hackett has a big year and both the LB's start all 16 games for their new teams. It is a secretive and complicated formula, but it is fun to think about. It would surprise me, but it is possible that Pork Chop will get a qualifying contract too.
What are the ramifications? Well the team is need of some youth. One of the reasons a team gets pressed up against the cap is that they are paying a lot of veteran salaries, so this is an opportunity to add a few extra young players and hope some stick. Also, the team may be switching some schemes next year. If so, they may need to get people who fit them better. Finally, and this is what will get most of you all excited, the team may be willing to trade some of next years regular picks in this draft, knowing(expecting) that they will receive compensatory picks, which are not allowed to be traded.
Either way, it isn't hard to see that things are changing around Kirkland. The team is going through a needed change,especially on offense. It is time to get young everywhere but quarterback. That way, in a couple of years, when the team makes that change, the new signal caller will have experience all around him.
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Or, more likely, if we find good receivers, we'll let them sign with other teams, so the next guy will have rookies as well.
ReplyDeleteLook how we fared with letting D-Jack go...
ReplyDeleteI understand the irritation, but Hackett only played six games last season. Six. If he had proven durable, the only thing we'd be discussing right now in regards to Hackett is if the re-up signing bonus the Seahawks gave him as part of his multi-year contract was big or too big.
ReplyDeleteThe team definitely sounds like it's in love with the four junior members of the receiver corps. Heck, take a look at their heights--we've got some excellent possibilities for replacing Hackett as the tall threat on the field.
...and yes, I was only counting regular season games. If your best players aren't healthy enough to start the majority of your regular season games, odds aren't good that you'll get a chance to add any postseason games to your tally.
ReplyDeleteI think this year comp. pick is for Ken Hamlin since he went to the pro bowl. The truth is that nobody has a clue how the system works. How many did the Patriots get the last couple years? is there a way to find out. It might help us solve the equation since they tend to release alot veterans and sign very few with the obvious exception of last year.
ReplyDeleteI'd have to think that Hack would work hard conditioning towards staying healthy in the off season, given his history. I dislike the idea of giving up on a player too quickly, yet understand we have a stable of young WRs with upside. I'm excited to see what they can do.
ReplyDeleteAlso, it was good we let D-Jack go and saw what Hack and others did.
Kerney, who also went to the pro bowl cancels Hamlin out. Plus, there is Grant and Russel too. I am pretty sure Stevens signed for the vet minimum which doesn't count. That is why I don't think we are getting one. Can you think of any other UFA's that left??? DJACK was a trade, Fisher was a trade, etc.
ReplyDeleteMisfit, wouldn't you have thought that Hack would have worked hard and been on the field as much as possible in a contract year?? He didn't seem to change much. I think it is a what you see is what you get kinda thing.
ReplyDeletei agreee dj has been hurt often and that led to his being let go. however, i think in some cases the player's potential has to be strongly considered. dj has proven he has pro bowl potential and fit the offense well, and his price was very affordable. i hope the young guys are good, but dj has showed he has potential, especially at ~3 mil for 2y. plus he seems to click with hasselbeck the way that branch really doesn't. i understand the reasoning, but i am disappointed he won't be back.
ReplyDeletei agree that the system is greater than the WRs, but i would love to see hass with an elite WR that can change the game and draw some double coverage.
anyway, this is long enough. what do you guys think?
Would you settle for Houshmanzadeh?
ReplyDeleteHe was taken in the 7th, just like Ben Obamanu, I bet the Bengals fans were worried about their receivers when they went into a season counting on a 7th and Chris Henry to be their 2 and 3. All we are asking is that 1 out 3 guys steps up to be the third receiver.....for half the season.
Not that big a deal at all, if you ask me. Hass spreads the ball around too much to have a diva receiver like Moss or Owens.
I don't know Mike... Brady was always cited for the way he spread the ball around. He got Moss and Welker and everyone else was pretty much forgotten and unnecessary.
ReplyDeleteElgranderojo
"Kerney, who also went to the pro bowl cancels Hamlin out."
ReplyDeleteThat's not how the formula works. When a team loses a player that signs a big multi-year contract, then that team would then get a 3rd round pick unless they signed another player for a big contract. The contract sizes of the incoming and outgoing players is the major decider of who gets compensatory picks. Post season honors like pro bowls don't count nearly as much.
So Hamlin probably would've only gotten a 7th rounder even if the Seahawks had signed no one. The Falcons on the other hand will probably get a 3rd rounder.
I don't mind rolling the dice on young WR's. I just wish we would have invested a bit more on the OL and DL during FA.
ReplyDeleteKebin-- I am confused, how does that support the idea that we will get a compensation pick this year?
ReplyDeleteI just meant that Hamlin going to the pro bowl doesn't matter that much.
ReplyDeleteI seem to remember Obamanu or Taylor laying a great runblock or two. It seems it may have been Taylor? Anyone remember? That's a part of their game that really could benefit the Hawks.
ReplyDeleteThat's a tough facet of the game to judge (WRs run-blocking).
ReplyDeleteI think Obomanu's hands are exceptional and his best asset.
Just a little side note on Obomanu and Taylor, they're both great run blockers because they came from Auburn which is a "run-first, run-second, and run-third" team. That is the reason they fell so far in the draft because they came from a school that didn't utilize their talent. They will really help with the running game and I think they will be great 3rd and 4th options.
ReplyDeleteI'll be interested to see Logan Payne play because he reminds of a Joe Jurevicious type- tall, smart, and great hands.
Good point jcoleman. One thing a team finds out about their players when they get to the professional level is that most players have about the same physical talent, it is a lot of intangilbes that makes a player great. Bobby Engram is supposed to run no faster than a 4.7 something at this stage in his career, but he is the best reciever on our team. Joe Jurevicious was probably slower than that. They had two things in common, they both caught the ball and didn't drop it, and they knew how to get open. I think Payne could be the best reciever in our offense in a few years. He's tall, had good hands, he's big, he can jump, he can lay down field blocks, etc... I don't care that there are people faster than him.
ReplyDelete-Griffin
*has good hands
ReplyDeleteHow many pro bowl receivers have there been in the 4th or later round? Let alone hall of famers? Practically none.
ReplyDeleteI don't think expecting too much out of the 6th, 7th and undrafted players is such a good idea.
Didn't Payne come from Minnesota? Which I believe is also a run first school? I'm excited to see the young wrs this season with a year under their belts
ReplyDelete-k
How many Pro Bowl receivers, 4th round or later?
ReplyDeleteA few, for starters:
PLAYER, PRO BOWL YEAR, DRAFTED
Rod Smith, 2006 (undrafted)
Joe Horn, 2005 (5th round)
Donald Driver, 2003 (7th round)
Troy Brown, 2002 (8th round)
Cris Carter, 2001 (4th round)
Michael Bates, 1999 (6th round)
Jermaine Lewis, 1998 (5th round)
Roell Preston, 1998 (5th round)
Yancy Thigpen, 1997 (4th round)
Tony Martin, 1996 (5th round)
Keenan McCardell, 1996 (12 round)
Steve Tasker, 1995 (9th round)
Rob Moore, 1994, 1997 (supplemental draft)
Andre Reed, 1994 (4th round)
Terance Mathis, 1994 (6th round)
Anthony Carter, 1989 (12th round)
Mark Clayton, 1988 (8th round)
Drew Hill, 1988 (12th round)
Eric Martin, 1988 (7th round)
J.T. Smith, 1988 (undrafted)
Steve Largent, 1987 (4th round)
Carlos Carson, 1987 (5th round)
... and many more in years prior. Oh, and many of these receivers were in the Pro Bowl for multiple years, but I only listed one year, so even in the years that aren't listed above, usually one or two of the pro bowlers were 4th round or later guys, such as Largent, J.T. Smith, Anthony Carter, Mark Clayton, Andre Reed, Chris Carter, Keenan McCardell, Michael Bates, Joe Horn. So basically, just about EVERY year has had at least one pro bowler that was 4th round or later, and most have had at least two guys who were 4th round or later.
How many of these guys are Hall of Famers?
Steve Largent
How many of the above guys are listed in the top 20 receivers of all time at the official HOF site, and likely to go into the HOF in the near future?
Cris Carter
Andre Reed
Keenan McCardell
and that was of 2005.
Honorable mentions:
Hines Ward (LAAAATE 3rd round, 92nd pick)
Antonio Freeman (3rd round, 90th pick)
You asked, I answered, in other words, plenty of great receivers are found in later rounds.
Uh oh, Kebin. On this site, unlike others, you have to know your facts if you are going to get any respect! I think you just got "showed up"!
ReplyDeleteSando-esque that Mike.
ReplyDeleteNice work (again).
Kebin-
ReplyDeleteIn addition to, I don't think the idea of the later picks is with the intent to find probowlers. But rather contributors such as solid back-ups, ST players and practice squad guys that could eventually develop into solid starters/shared time. You don't have to go to the probowl to be considered a good player. And I'll take a team of solid good starters over a couple elite players and a bunch of hacks anyday.
CTS
Another thing to add to the argument is how many WR's does Seattle traditionally carry on their active roster? 5 most years 6 in others.
ReplyDeleteHow many of those WR's are usually on the 45 man game day roster? Usually only 4.
So, if Engram, Burleson, Obomanu and Tayler are your 4 game day WR's until Branch comes back you have 4 players who were on the 2007game day roster for 18 games - both Burleson and Branch, 15 games - Obomanu, and 8 regular season games with Taylor.
They all have NFL game experience, they just need to be ready to step up and be on the field more.
-- Chuck
On a bit of another note, I think letting some of these veteran players go this year will help our cap space next year, when we will need the space. Aren't Lofa and Hill due to be FA's next year? If so, we better have some serious cash ready for them.
ReplyDelete~USAFANARC
That was one of the more impressive discussions I have ever awoke too. Brilliant. This site is smokin'! I got something that is sure to blow up later
ReplyDeleteKUdos to Michael and all who have contributed to this great discussion. I am now more excited about the Hawks than I was yesterday!
ReplyDeleteI love how Michael pointed out that all we need is for one of these kids to step it up to a pretty solid level. We do not need a pro bowl player...yet. I like our odds. Jordan Kent is crazy athletic too. Certainly a wild card. All these guys will be getting a LOT of reps in minicamps and passing camps. Remember- last year Hass didn't participate in these due to his shoulder recovering. This year- he'll be the one running the first team.
While Hackett was big and showed talent, the Hawks KNEW what he brings to the table and acted moving forward with complete knowledge. You cannot compete with that.
I was most impressed with what I saw from Taylor. Something he did that is often not mentioned is how he got cracked pretty good during the Memorial Stadium scrimmage (open to public), hurt his knee, and made it back in time to make the team. That is something that Mr. Hackett probably wouldn't have done...make it back. Already you know that Taylor has a fire, a risilience that Hackett hasn't shown. Payne, sticking with it on the practice squad. Obomanu has an NFL TD. Burleson one year wiser in the offense.
-Papahawk
Andrew--Hamlin was a UFA, no compensation due--he left just like Hackett, Wyms, et al.
ReplyDeletePapaHawk--You made me howl! Obomanu has an NFL TD. HA! So he is destined to be our savior?! That was funny!
ReplyDeleteI know what you mean though. The guy has some experience, he just needs regular playing time.
Burleson one year wiser was almost as funny. How many years do you need to have meaningful playing time in order to attain at least the number two wr spot (and winning it by default doesnt count)? with burly, its going on SIX YEARS! That guy had better step the hell up this season, learn to run correct routes, and bulk up a bit--im tired of seeing him drop balls every time he gets hit, im tired of seeing him get balls ripped away from him every time he tries to run the slant.
The young guys and Burleson are getting thier chance to step up and shine. We all hope Ruskell knows what he's doing.
And Lofa and Hill are going to command HUGE money, especially Lofa. Im betting he gets 8-11 million a year. If we dont pay him, the niners or someone sure will.
-SlaveToTheBusinessman
Again the knocks on Burleson Slave?
ReplyDeleteAll he did last year was PLAY IN ALL 18 GAMES. Was second on the team with 694 receiving yards. Was FIRST on the team with 9 receiving and 2 kick/punt return TD's.
What does the guy have to do to be considered a contributor? Bring you your beer and hotdog during TV time outs?
--Chuck
Chuck, He doesn't have time for STTBM, cause he brings me nachos and pizza during halftime. That is only reason we support him on this site. :-) JK
ReplyDeleteanother point to make. Obomanu had a solid game in greenbay 4/63/15.8 avg. for the year 12/180/15/1td.
ReplyDeleteweek 6 vs. NO, 4/72/18/1.
now i liked hack as much as the next guy however he can't stay on the feild. i am willing to bet that
obomanu can and will. when catching
atleast 2 passes he avg. is 15 yards. i think ththe potential is there to be one of our best recievers.
I like the fact that the two most productive guys are the ones that are totally under rated. Engram is an excellent posession receiver and has shown to be reliable (except his thyroid condition last year). Now Burly is great at PR's and KR's and is coming into his own as a number 2 receiver as he shows the ability to hold on to the ball. I agree he has some work to do in regards to route running and he can afford to bulk up on some muscle. With Branch on the field we have a great threat, but has he actually proven himself in this system. I don't think he has as of yet. With his surgery he is only going to have maybe half the season to contribute and by that time one of the younger guys could step up. I think Obamanu is the guy that is going to show up next year; afterall, he is the only guy out of the three youths that really has experience with Hass throwing to him. I am anxious to see what transpires at WR. I can't wait to see what kind of competition goes on in training camp.
ReplyDeleteI notice Kebin has now gone silent...
ReplyDelete[tumbleweed*]
* Was a 7th round draft pick from Texas A&M. He didn't make the HOF but played in 3 Pro Bowls.
I remember reading last offseason that Obomanu has an unbelievable work ethic. It was in an article about the Auburn crew on the Seahawks. Unfortunately I cannot fidn it. But to my point, work ethic and consistant practice makes you not only better but more resiliant to injury. Darrell Jackson and DJ Hackett did not have great work ethic.
ReplyDeleteThere is one football player who had crazy workouts in the offseason that made the season look like a cakewalk. His name was Jerry Rice. I remember growing up in the Bay Area and watching the man running with a parachute on and with 20 pound weights in his hands. Work ethic is what makes you elite in the NFL. I know it is too early to tell but I think Obomanu is going to be nice contributer.
Here is a video of him blocking for Shaun. He gives Shaun the ability to go 25 yds.
http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d804fa0aa
I always thought TO was better than Randy Moss because he blocks like a TE.
Chuck--Thats the problem. Burleson played LOTS in all 18 games, and I dont care if he was second on the team. 40+ cathces for less than 700yards is not very good considering his reps. His being number two on our team higlighted our injury and pass-protection issues, as well as Burlesons knack for disappearing onfield. How many games did he have less than 4 catches or less than 50 yards??! Lots!
ReplyDeleteI have said this before: Burleson is valuable, but overpaid and inconsistent. As long as Coach and Ruskell dont try to make him what he isnt, he will contribute. But the guy is never going to make the pro Bowl as a WR. Never. He is a number 3 WR, and a fine kick returner.
-Slave
slave, you are starting to get on my nerves. You can have your opinions but stop being so negative. Burleson isn't meant to be a vanilla, textbook receiver. He is not inconsistent nor is he overpaid. He brings so many intangibles that others cannot, including being a playmaker at JUST the right time. He is a receiver (and pretty darn good) and a punt, kickoff returner. He is excitable and his energy is contagious. He is a team guy and he is anything but pompous and self-centered. So don't give me any crap about him being inconsistent and overpaid.
ReplyDeleteTezzer 21
Relax, Tezzer. We disagree completely on whether Nate is inconsistent/worth his contract. You're entitled to you're opinion.
ReplyDeleteIm tired of folks ignoring his faults because he caught 9 td's.
9 TD's dont make up for poorly run routes and dropped passes.
How many 100 yard games did Nate have last year? Only 1.
In my mind, I tell it like it is. Im sure you do the same. Disagreeing with a player assesment doesnt make someone negative.
-SlaveToTheBusinessman
As far as great recievers drafted late, what about Marques Colston?
ReplyDelete2007 New Orleans Saints 16 14 98 1,202 12.3 45 11
2006 New Orleans Saints 14 12 70 1,038 14.8 86T 8
G, GS, receptions, yds, avg, TD
That guy was drafted in the 7th, and I don't hear the Saints complaining. He is built pretty similar to Logan Payne...
-Griffin
Back to the subject of comp picks. Based on your thoughts and research, how many extra picks do you think we will acquire next year mike? Would be nice to get another 2nd rounder this year
ReplyDeleteCTS
Comp picks start after the 3rd round
ReplyDeleteRight now it looks like maybe 4 picks in the later rounds, but good seasons by some of the players could move the picks up
ReplyDeleteNate dropped VERY few passes last year. Most of his drops were the YEAR BEFORE, when he had a SLING ON HIS HAND that effected his ability to clutch the ball.
ReplyDeleteAs for his number of receptions, it's great, considering he was the 3rd or 4th receiver for more than half the season, as at times Hackett AND Branch were healthy, along with Engram, and at other times it was either Hackett OR Branch healthy, along with Engram, which would allow Burleson to play the 3rd receiver.
He only got to be the number 2 receiver on rare occasions, when both Hackett AND Branch were out at the same time.
For a 3rd/4th receiver, having 50 catches, for 694 yards, 13.9 yard avg, and 9 TD's, pretty awesome!
I went back and reviewed playing time by all recievers in 2007, Nate was the number 3 reciever in 14 of 18 games played (reg + post seasons), he was the #4 reciever in 2 of 18 games. So in 16 of 18 games he was either the 3rd or 4th reciever. In 1 game he was the 2nd reciever, and in another game, he was the 3rd reciever for the 1st quarter, then the 2nd reciever for the last 3 quarters due to injury.
So, that's outstanding numbers when you are the 3rd or 4th option most of the time.
"in the years that aren't listed above, usually one or two of the pro bowlers were 4th round or later guys"
ReplyDeleteEach year there are 8 receivers in the pro bowl, or more depending on injuries allowing alternates to play, and according to you, usually only 1 or 2 of them is a 4th rounder or later. That's even lower for 6th to undrafted players.
And Steve Largent, who was a 4th rounder, is the only HOFer. I would say that definitely qualifies 4th and later draft picks as being in the minority of receivers in the HOF.
That is what I meant by practically none, I didn't say none.
Considering how the 4th rounders have fared, I doubt any of the 6th to undrafted receivers the Seahawks have will make the pro bowl, and that's what I meant by not expecting too much. They might be decent, but not in the same category as Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, etc.
"I notice Kebin has now gone silent..."
I'll make responding to blog comments my no. 1 priority in life just for you Mr. Posh.
Blue--
ReplyDeleteBurleson played many reps in every game. Being the third reciever doesnt necessarily mean you are the third option on a given play.
Many times Matt looked his way first or second as he went through his checkdowns. I watched several games where he dropped more than 3 passes, and it seemed every game he dropped at leat 1 or 2 easily catchable balls. I have no idea why we dont see the same thing.
I tend to focus closely on the WR, as it is my favorite position. ALso, I was stoked when we signed Nate, and so I have watched him especially close.
Even Holmgren has stated that they are disappointed with Nate. He has not lived up to thier expectations, due to running the wrong/sloppy routes and the dropped passes.
Im done. I hope Burleson comes out and kicks ass this year. Im tired of my own anlaysis.
-SlaveToTheBusinessman