by: Mike Parker
Though many may disagree, (myself included), John Morgan over at FieldGulls seems to think the Seahawks are going to take QB Matt Stafford with their fourth-overall pick.
Here's what Morgan has to say on why Detroit, a team that's widely predicted to take Stafford at no. 1, will actually pass on the chance.
Relevant information: GM Martin Mayhew and Head Coach Jim Schwarz are economics majors who graduated from Georgetown.I don't know if I buy Morgan's reasoning on this, and not just because of his usage of the word "boondoggle."
Reason it's relevant: Quarterback is a risky position and Stafford is a risky pick. I'm sure Mayhew is abundantly aware of the potential boondoggle a first round pick can become. Schwarz is known for his support and endorsement of Football Outsiders. Between Stafford's lousy Lewin Projection and a small raft of elite, low risk tackle talents, the Lions are very unlikely to take Stafford in the first.
Complicating Factor: Two economics majors at the helm means Detroit trading down for something less than perceived value is very possible. The team that trades with Detroit could target Stafford.
It seemed very clear this past season that Detroit was looking to move beyond Jon Kitna. The mysterious injury Kitna suffered in the first month of the season led to the aging quarterback to go on record and say he felt the franchise was just looking for an excuse to get him benched. Naturally, that all could be hearsay at best; but the fact that Detroit had to resort to dragging perennial washout Daunte Culpepper out of retirement in a futile attempt to save their season speaks volumes about just how badly the Lions are in need of a starting quarterback.
The truly ironic part? Culpepper ended up being benched in favor of Dan Orlovsky, who ended up leading the Lions to a none-too-glorious 0-16 finish. And yet, the Lions are saying they're still going with Culpepper as their starting QB for 2009-10.
And no, I don't buy that either. But if that's the case, the Lions still don't have the answer for a question they fail to understand.
In short, I think a couple of economics degrees and a new head coach and GM aren't going to sway what many have already predicted: Detroit has far too many needs to pass up on a prospect like Matt Stafford. They have a stud receiver in Calvin Johnson, who still somehow manages to pull off amazing games out of nowhere with a subpar guy throwing him passes. If anything, Schwarz and Mayhew might be looking to how Atlanta and Baltimore rejuvenated their teams with the drafting of explosive, cerebral and playmaking quarterbacks, and think to themselves: 'If they did it, why can't we?'
In the meantime, Mr. Crabtree, I hope you like green and blue. A lof of people up here seem to think you'd look pretty good in it. -END-