No Pass Rush Means No Turnovers

by: Michael Steffes

One of the things that I believe has been severely limiting the Seahawks this year is a lack of turnovers. Turnovers are often a product of several factors. Sometimes they are created by sheer luck, but good teams, especially good defensive teams, create their own turnovers. This is something that the Seahawks talked about way back in week 2, but haven't unmentioned since.

So far the Seahawks have a minus four (-4) turnover differential. A more potent offensive team may be able to manage a margin like this, but because of the injuries, lack of continuity, etc., this team is not an offensive juggernaut. In fact, this offense needs the defense to help them by creating turnovers. They need a short field or two every game to score the number of points it takes to win football games in the NFL. So far, the Seahawks' defense has turned the ball over twice: one interception and one fumble recovery.

One of the reasons that this has been the case, in my opinion, has been the lack of a consistent pass rush. Outside of the San Francisco game, when the defense tallied 8 sacks, the pass rush has only gotten to the QB once per game. That is not enough, and thus the defense has not turned the ball over enough. In fact, if we take a look at last year--using all 18 games played including the playoffs--there is a significant correlation (r=.489. P<.05) between sacks and turnovers. While there is more to pressuring the QB than just sacks, this analysis lends itself to this theory.

This year, if we remove Josh Wilson's special teams fumble, the offense has turned the ball over 5 times. That is not an unreasonable number when you consider that two of these came in garbage time of blowout losses to Buffalo and NY. It is hard to fault Hasselbeck for trying to make something happen. Also, the two interceptions Matt threw versus San Francisco were mostly a product of bad luck, as both came off of tipped balls. That will even out over time. This offense is being fairly judicious with the ball. However, the defense is not doing its part, a running theme with Seattle this year.

I have some more bad news. The incoming Green Bay Packers have a turnover differential of plus three (+3), a far better ratio than that of the Seahawks. However, this is mostly a product of their defense. Aaron Rogers has thrown an equal number of interceptions as Matt, 4. Also, the Green Bay offense has allowed 11 sacks so far this year, an average of 2.2 per game. Hopefully this will lend itself to the Seahawks starting to bring the turnover differential more towards their favor.

Of course, this assumes that Matt will continue to be careful with the football, and maybe that the defense will have a breakout game. Let's hope so, as the Seahawks will need these things to happen to get their season back on track. ~END~