Receiver Central

Thank PurplePansy for this Idea....

One of the big questions upcoming the Seattle Seahawks, is what is going to happen at wide receiver? As of today DJ Hackett is still a free agent. For the sake of this analysis, lets assume he isn't back (not like he would be on the field anyway). Deion Branch tore his ACL during the GB playoff game. He is expected to miss the early part of the year.

Here is what the current depth chart looks like....

Deion Branch (inj)
Bobby Engram
Nate Burleson
Ben Obamanu
Courtney Tayor
Logan Payne
Jordan Kent

To continue on for analysis..........

Here is the good news for the Seahawks. Last year they had a pass offense ranked as the 9th best pass offense in the league, by Football Outsiders. The pass offense DVOA was 17.2%.

For those of you unfamiliar, DVOA stands for Defense-Adjusted-Value-Over-Average, and what Football Outsiders does is weight statistics based on opponent, situation, yards needed, and then compares how a team does vs what the average team would do. So essentially, the Seahawks were 17% more likely to be successful in passing situations than the average air attack. Detroit's passing attack was the closest DVOA to 0% at .08. So as a frame of reference Detroit would be the average.

Anyway, if you are still reading, what that really says is that Seattle had pretty darn good passing attack last year. But you knew that, else our offense would have been anemic. Well then, why all the concern? Guess who the most productive wide receivers on the team were....Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson. The two receivers on top of the depth chart today

According to Football Outsiders, Engram ranks as the 7th best receiver, Branch is at 47, and Burleson 52. While these guy are not Moss, Welker, and Stallworth, they still present one of the top trio's in the league. So really, the Hawks need to find a way to match the production they will lose from Branch. Here a look at the actual numbers....



Obamanu does have numbers, but his sample size his so low FO doesn't even rank him. So really this becomes an exercise is scouting reports. Really, Obamanu, Payne, Taylor and even Kent are all unproven commodities. Each person is likely to have their own opinion about these players, but there are no statistics to back it up. So rather agreeing to disagree about who might be better, lets look at this from some different angle.

That angle is space. Since 2002, the team has kept 6 receivers in every year buy 05' when they kept 7. So for the sake of commonplace, lets just roll with the idea that there will be six receivers come Sept. Who will they be? Well, Bobby, Nate, Deion, Ben, Taylor are pretty sure bets. They all got playing time last year, and none of them qualify for the practice squad.

While Payne and Kent do have another year of practice squad eligibility, here is two things to think about.

1) Why would Ruskell be fawning over Payne in public if they thought they could sneak him through on the PC another year. He would be dramatically increasing the chances that someone claims him.

2) I came across this the other day... Jordan Kent is signed to a 5 yr deal!!! I know he isn't required to be on the roster just because of that, but do you think the team felt it was important to lock him up past his first year of free agency if they wanted to dump him.

Jordan Kent was unilaterally regarded as one of the best athletes to ever go to Oregon, and there have been a few. He lettered in Football, Basketball, and Track in the same season. Many have said that if he chose one sport he could have been great. Well last April, he chose football, and the Hawks must think he will succeed, or they probably wouldn't have given him a bonus and 5 yr deal. They will give him every chance to develop. Plus, with the special teams unit seeming a little weak right now, a three sport star might be just the type of guy it needs, barring he has the right mentality.

Kent is the one player who I could see being on the practice squad again. Really, only because he is the one player out of the young guys that Coach Holmgren or Tim Ruskell hasn't gushed about in public at some point in the last year. He is the least likely to be swiped by another team, but the team has every reason to keep him. Out of all of these guys, he could be the best, with a little experience.

I have to believe that the team would want Hackett back on a one year deal, only if it is because it gives them the best chance to win next year. However, it may be that they would lose a young receiver or two if they make that call. How would you feel if Hackett missed 10 games again and both Payne and Kent were picked off by other teams? When you think of it that way, it almost seems as if Hackett really has no place. Too bad for him no one gave him big dollars.

So while all we have to go on is the fact that the coaching staff and front office, who, by the way have led us to 4 straight division championships, like these young receivers. The more important question to who will be on the roster next year, is who we would lose if they are not?