Summing Up Running Back Scenario's

With T.J. Duckett in town and eating dinner with the coaches, I thought this might be a good time to sum up some of the running back scenarios. The seems to be a lot of different theories about cap hits, cap savings, number of running backs, etc. These are some of the issues I am going to attempt to address.

To check out my thoughts on the running back scenarios....


First off, the Seahawks have consistently carried 5 running backs on the roster. This was the case in both 05', 06' and 07'. In both 05' and 07' the Hawks carried two fullbacks, two tailbacks, and 1 primarily special teams performer (Scobey). 06' was a little different because Weaver went on IR. They tried to replace his spot with Josh Parry, who also subsequently went on IR, forcing the team to keep Marquis Weeks active for most of the season. He got 3 carries I believe.

Here is how that effects this season. Expect Weaver and Kirtman to fill the fullback spots. Kirtman is no longer eligible for the practice squad and the team has used him enough on special teams to think he will be the back up FB and a key special teams guy. That leaves two, maybe 3, tailbacks. One who will probably receive very little playing time on offense, but contribute on special teams. If we draft a rookie, I would expect that is the role he will play, or at least be slotted in until he proves otherwise.

The team has Morris locked up for one more year. He is valuable, do-it-all cog, in this offense. The team has Alexander, and is now possibly negotiating with Duckett. Ruskell has said that he will keep Alexander on board this year, so it is possible that this is the rotation, and no rookie is involved. However, if a running back is drafted, it almost assures someone must go (or not be signed). Possibly, if it is a 7th round pick, he can be slipped to the practice squad. So a running back in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th probably signifies the end of either Morris or Shaun. My only thought is that Duckett would complement Morris better than Shaun, only because Duckett and Shaun are about equal in their effect on the passing game. It is still possible they would keep more backs and less players some where else, the pattern is just that they keep 5, 2 tailbacks, 2 fullbacks, and a special teams/rb guy.

If the team doesn't draft a running back, which I think is a definite possibility at this point, especially if one they like doesn't fall past his value, they could be looking at a tough situation next year. If Shaun has another bad year, they could conceivably have their hand forced because the only other running back under contract would be Duckett. That is assuming he signs a multiple year deal. Then the options are the team will have to pay Morris what the market bares, or hope a first day pick is ready to play right away. If Shaun performs then they could keep him, have Duckett, and room for a pick. Honestly, this would be great. But will Shaun return to form? -06' was an injury, 07' was an injury, 08' would be a trend. Lets look at what happens if the team is forced to go a different direction. I have included a graphic which will help the readers decided which route with Shaun works the best.




Here is some help understanding this. When a player is released, his base salaries immediately disappear. The team is no longer responsible for them, they no longer count against the cap. What remains is the signing bonus amounts. These bonuses are pro-rated over 5 yr periods, as long as the contract is that length. So Shaun's bonus counts 2.3 each year. If he is cut, the Hawks have to take that hit in one of two ways, regular-all at once, or as a June 1st, which allows them to spit it over a two year period. The first year is just the normal amount. The second year is the remaining pro-rations of the bonus. The graph shows what the cap hit is if he is on the roster, or cut in each of the scenarios over a the next three years. What you can see is that Shaun is going to count 6.9 against the cap regardless, it is only a matter of how that is distributed.

Cutting him straight this year does nothing to help the Hawks, they lose cap room. Cutting him as a June 1 creates cap room, but lessens the cap room gained next year cause of dead money. This is exactly why the Hawks have 4.7 million of dead money on the books this year for Grant Wistrom. Cutting him next year as a June 1 makes a lot of sense, but then he is still on the books in 09', even if for a small amount.

The question that really comes in is when is the right time? financial concerns, roster space , and productivity all create a conundrum. Also when do the Hawks want to take a back? If Jonathan Stewart falls, that maybe accelerates the decision. If they can't get a guy they feel will contribute as much as Shaun this year, then maybe it makes sense to wait and dedicate a high pick next year. What would be the public relations fallout if Shaun has a bad year and the team doesn't do well? These are all things being considered right now. It poses an interesting dynamic, that I for one, am very interested in watching play out. This is why Ruksell gets paid the bucks, to make the right decisions when presented with all the possible scenarios.