Friday, January 30, 2009

Best Player Available Mock

By: William P. Tomisser

I was thinking the other day that we all talk about drafting the best player available as being the best philosophy to use on draft day and that our pick at number 4 really should reflect that. Also, comments have been made that the reason you see picks like the Rams taking a left tackle and the Seahawks taking a wide receiver is that those are the biggest needs as perceived by the person making the mock draft. Most mock drafts are constructed by matching the team who is on the board and their biggest need with the best player at that position still available.

That makes all the mocks basically a mockery (pun intended) of the best player available theory. I decided to make my own mock and put the best player available philosophy to the test as the best way to draft. Using the top 100 players ranked in order of their value regardless of position by CBS Sports' NFL Draft, I made a three round mock draft where each team simply takes the next player on the list, as that player should be the best player available to them at the time.

So, here’s what it would look for Seattle if they really followed that age old philosophy instead of just giving lip service to the concept. Seattle has the 4th, 37th, and 68th picks in the first 3 rounds:

Round 1 – 4th best player: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State, 6’, 200 lbs, 4.45 - 40

Round 2: - 37th best player: Patrick Chung, SS, Oregon , 5’ 11”, 210 lbs, 4.54 - 40

Round 3: - 68th best player: Brian Robiskei, WR, Ohio State, 6’ 2”, 200 lbs, 4.52 - 40

Of course, if the teams really did that, each team would construct their own draft board and so the order of the top 100 players would change from team to team somewhat based on their internal rankings, but you can see it produces quite a different looking mock.

For example, Walter Football has Chung going to Dallas at number 51 in its recent mock draft, so taking him at 37 would have been considered a reach. That same mock had us selecting Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina at number 37. Hakeem is ranked number 26 on the top 100 players chart-- if the teams drafted in best player order, he would have been long gone by then.

Brian Robiskei was selected in the third round at number 76 by the New York Jets in the Walter Football mock. They had us selecting Derek Pegues, a FS from Mississippi State who was the 49th best player on the top 100 chart. Pegues also would have been long gone by the time we select according to the best player theory.

By the way, Walter Football had us selecting Eugene Monroe in the first round, with Malcolm Jenkins going at number 14 to the New Orleans Saints. Monroe is the 5th best player on the top 100 chart, so the Saints would be getting a steal by taking the 4th best player at pick 14.

If the draft falls more like Walter Football projects in their mock draft, we end up with the 5th, 26th, and 49th best rated players for our first 3 picks. That’s quite an improvement over the 4th, 37th, and 68th best players we get from going for the best athlete available if the teams draft right down the line. Interesting, huh?

One thing to note is that we ended up with three useful players out of the best player draft. We got a CB to go opposite Trufant, a replacement safety for Russell, and a much-needed wide receiver. We can’t complain about any part of that. Additionally, I’ve seen a few people post about Chung from Oregon being a good prospect, too.

So Seahawk Addicts, if Seattle got the three players indicated by actually going for the best player available, how would you rate that draft?

To Continue and see the whole 3 round draft . . .

Round 1

1 Detroit *Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech
2 St.Louis Aaron Curry OLB Wake Forest
3 Kansas City Michael Oher OT Mississippi
4 Seattle Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State
5 Cleveland Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
6 Cincinnati Brian Orakpo DE Texas
7 Oakland James Laurinaitis ILB Ohio State
8 Jacksonville Rey Maualuga ILB Southern Cal
9 Green Bay *Andre Smith OT Alabama
10 San Francisco *Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
11 Buffalo Jason Smith OT Baylor
12 Denver Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State
13 Washington *Everette Brown DE Florida State
14 New Orleans *Chris Wells RB Ohio State
15 Houston *D.J. Moore CB Vanderbilt
16 San Diego *Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
17 New York Jets B.J. Raji DT Boston College
18 Chicago *Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri 1
19 Tampa Bay Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech
20 Detroit (from Dallas) Peria Jerry DT Mississippi
21 Philadelphia *Eben Britton OT Arizona
22 Minnesota Brian Cushing OLB Southern Cal
23 New England William Moore FS Missouri
24 Atlanta *Paul Kruger DE Utah
25 Miami Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest
26 Baltimore *Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina
27 Indianapolis Clint Sintim OLB Virginia
28 Philadelphia (from Car)*Vontae Davis CB Illinois
29 New York Giants Chase Coffman TE Missouri
30 Tennessee Duke Robinson OG Oklahoma
31 Arizona Herman Johnson OG LSU
32 Pittsburgh *Sean Smith CB Utah

Round 2

33 Detroit Larry English OLB Northern Illinois
34 St. Louis *Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
35 Kansas City Max Unger C Oregon
36 Cleveland Tyrone McKenzie OLB South Florida
37 Seattle Patrick Chung SS Oregon
38 Cincinnati *Shonn Greene RB Iowa
39 Jacksonville Mike Mickens CB Cincinnati
40 Oakland Fili Moala DT Southern Cal
41 Green Bay Jonathan Luigs C Arkansas
42 Buffalo Evander Hood DT Missouri
43 San Francisco Victor Harris CB Virginia Tech
44 Miami William Beatty OT Connecticut
45 New York Giants Clay Matthews OLB Southern Cal
46 Houston Juaquin Iglesias WR Oklahoma
47 New England Connor Barwin DE Cincinnati
48 Denver Derrick Williams WR Penn State
49 Chicago Derek Pegues FS Mississippi State
50 Tampa Bay *Kenny Britt WR Rutgers
51 Dallas Phil Loadholt OT Oklahoma
52 Philadelphia *James Casey TE Rice
53 New York Jets *Donald Brown RB Connecticut
54 Minnesota Darry Beckwith ILB LSU
55 Atlanta Alex Mack C California
56 Miami Louis Murphy WR Florida
57 Baltimore *Jared Cook TE South Carolina
58 New England Darius Butler CB Connecticut
59 Carolina Alex Magee DT Purdue
60 New York Giants Matt Shaughnessy DE Wisconsin
61 Indianapolis Javon Ringer RB Michigan State
62 Tennessee Troy Kropog OT Tulane 2-3
63 Arizona *Josh Freeman QB Kansas State
64 Pittsburgh Coye Francies CB San Jose State

Round 3

65 Detroit Marcus Freeman OLB Ohio State
66 St. Louis *Sen'Derrick Marks DT Auburn
67 Kansas City Michael Hamlin SS Clemson
68 Seattle Brian Robiskie WR Ohio State
69 Dallas *Austin Collie WR BYU
70 Cincinnati Tyson Jackson DE LSU
71 Oakland Trevor Canfield OG Cincinnati
72 Jacksonville Eric Wood C Louisville
73 Green Bay Louis Delmas FS Western Michigan
74 San Francisco Rashad Jennings RB Liberty
75 Buffalo Rhett Bomar QB Sam Houston State
76 New York Jets Kraig Urbik OG Wisconsin
77 Houston Zack Follett OLB California
78 San Diego *Captain Munnerlyn CB South Carolina
79 Denver Mohamed Massaquoi WR Georgia
80 Washington Nic Harris SS Oklahoma
81 Tamp Bay Devin Moore RB Wyoming
82 Detroit Fenuki Tupou OT Oregon
83 Philadelphia Keenan Lewis CB Oregon State
84 Green Bay Tim Jamison DE Michigan
85 Chicago Vance Walker DT Georgia Tech
86 Minnesota Brandon Gibson WR Washington State
87 Miami Dannell Ellerbe ILB Georgia
88 Baltimore Ryan Purvis TE Boston College
89 New England Ramses Barden WR Cal Poly
90 Atlanta Jeremiah Johnson RB Oregon
91 New York Giants Antoine Caldwell C Alabama
92 Indianapolis Graham Harrell QB Texas Tech
93 Carolina Robert Ayers DE Tennessee
94 Tennessee Andy Levitre OG Oregon State
95 Arizona Jonathan Casillas OLB Wisconsin
96 Pittsburgh Jamon Meredith OT South Carolina


Bill T