Thursday, July 10, 2008

Lo Jack a Bust?

by: Michael Steffes

I found an interesting blog post that may stir some discussion. Eric Edholm of has written an article he calls 50-50. The premise is that half of the first round picks work out and the other half are busts. He is attempting to predict which way the picks will go. He doesn't think to highly of Mr. Tim Ruskell's choice this year...

28. DE Lawrence Jackson — Seahawks
Prediction: Bust
I thought Jackson was a nice college player, but I have heard two scouts say he’s not special in any way and that a lot of his production in college came from the fact that he was surrounded by elite talent at USC. You didn’t often see him double-teamed, which is a good indication he didn’t warrant such treatment. In Seattle’s system, Jackson will rotate a lot. I suspect he’ll never be great, though he could be serviceable.

There could be a few things working here. I don't know Edholm or his work very well, but if we just look at this article, it is possible he has an anti USC bias. He thinks that three of the four Trojans chosen this year, Keith Rivers, Sam Baker, and Lawrence Jackson, in the first round are going to be busts. Sed Ellis is the only one he sees succeeding.

This lead me to research the history of his picks a bit. He did this last year as well. Here is last years article. Because the Hawks didn't have a first, we can't determine if he has anything against the Hawks picks, but it is clear that his selections are just as much of a crap shoot as the actual draft. Notable bust picks from last year include: Joe Thomas, who some have said is already a top 3 tackle in the league; Marshaun Lynch, who while a turd is also a pretty effective runner; and KC's Dewayne Bowe, who came within 5 yards of being the third rookie wideout in 10 years to amass 1000 yards in his rookie season.

In other words, make of this what you will, but it is an interesting read either way. ~END~