Sunday, March 15, 2009

Trading Down?

by: Chris Sullivan

A number of Addicts, myself included, have expressed interest in the Hawks trading down picks. The teams use a pretty well-established trade value chart which you can find here. I took a look at it today and broke down the first couple rounds to see what trades might be made for the Hawks #4 pick -- this is all rampant speculation, but it is based on the value chart so it's got some backing.

To read all about the three potential trades I see, click here:

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags are a prime target to trade down because they have a couple of clear needs, such as a starting caliber left tackle. There are arguably two OT standouts in this draft class who can start from day one: Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe. Almost everyone is expecting both of them to be gone by the time the 8th pick comes along. Sure, they could settle for Andre "I was supposed to what by when?" Smith or Michael Oher, but if they consider them severe drop offs from the top two, they may be willing to make a move.

The Seahawks' #4 draft pick has a value of 1,800 points. The Jags' #8 is worth 1,400, and their second is worth 510(1,910 total). This leaves a 110 point differential, which could be largely settled with the Hawks fourth round (#101), which is worth 96 points. Those 14 points are negligible, and it makes sense that the Hawks would get a bit more out of this since the Jags would be needing the trade-up. This would leave the Hawks with the 8th, 37th, 68th, 72nd and 129th picks in the first five rounds.

San Fransisco 49ers

While the Hawks may think twice before giving the #4 pick to a division rival, if they feel there are no remaining #4 picks, they might change their song. Two of the 49ers top needs could be filled with the 4th overall pick and may not be available with the 10th -- namely, a top-end outside linebacker (Aaron Curry) and a solid offensive tackle (there will be a good one, but again, if they view the second two as a dropoff from the top two, they might not want to settle). Facing Curry and Willis would be a terrifying thing, so the Hawks might not be willing to let that one happen, but that's not really the point of this exercise.

The 49ers first pick is worth 1,300 points and their second is worth 470. This would be sufficient to snag the Hawks' #4 (1,800 pts). They might also try to swap later picks to make up those few points, or take our sixth (~25 points) or seventh.

I don't view this one as too likely, honestly. It would give the Hawks the 10th, 37th, and 43rd picks in the top two rounds.

Philadelphia Eagles

You've already heard me harping about this one. I think the Eagles are in a great position to trade up because they already have two first round picks -- #21 and #28. The Eagles need a load of help on the o-line, and one of those big left tackles might be just what the doctor ordered. They signed Stacy Andrews to shore up one side of the line, but getting that line younger and stronger is not going to hurt anyone. They've done a decent job of filling their needs via Free Agency, but left tackle is one of those positions that teams often like to fill in a long-term way if they can.

Their #21 pick is worth 800 pts and their #28 pick is 660 (1,460 total), then their second round pick is worth 380 (1,840 total). The Hawks, again, have 1,800 pts of value in the #4 pick, 40 fewer than the Eagles' first two rounds. I wouldn't be shocked if this difference was overlooked, but we could shuffle around the later rounds, too. [UPDATED: Fixed the values -- thanks Bill, I mixed up my columns with the 49ers]

This is a dream scenario from my standpoint. The Hawks would not be tied up in a top-5 pick (and the Eagles would be spending a little bit more on one player than they were already going to spend on two lesser-needed players). I think the Eagles are in a spot where they believe they are one or two missing pieces away from competing for the NFC Championship. This would give the Hawks a shot at drafting a Knowshon Moreno/Chris Wells/LeSean McCoy and the top center -- or one of the top three CBs, the top safety, etcetera. There is going to be a ton of value in the middle of the first, and our needs don't really mesh too well with the talent at the top of the draft.


What do you guys think?